Overconfidence is the Disease of Experts!

What does it mean for leaders to fail? In light of the failures recently experienced in this turbulent economy, Malcom Gladwell explored this question in a recent talk "Overconfidence and the Diseases of the Experts" at UTC. Gladwell is the author of bestsellers “The Tipping Point,” “Blink” and “Outliers”.

Using the power of a great civil war battle story, Gladwell contrasted the leadership styles of General Hooker of the Union Army, and General Lee of the Confederate Army, at the 1863 battle of Chancellorsville, Virginia. General Hooker was known for his sophisticated approach for military intelligence and "knew more about Lee's army than Lee did", said Gladwell. Did more information, create greater leadership?

Gladwell went on to a share a research study which clearly demonstrated more information generates improved confidence but only marginal increases in performance. In fact, Gladwell went on to say, "more information potentially causes mis-calibration". Hooker was so confident his 130K strong army would prevail in battle over Lee's 64K strong army, he delayed the start of battle so the Union men could prepare, eat, and rest. Lee took this opportunity to drive south, giving the illusion of withdrawal, and then split his smaller army into mini battle units to infiltrate and surprise Hooker's men during their final meal. Lee prevailed! "Over confidence is the disease of experts. Incompetence is the disease of idiots. Incompetence annoys. Overconfidence hurts", said Gladwell.

"We don't need to rely on the expertise of leaders, we need to rely on the humility of our leaders", shared Gladwell. For the leaders who we charge with making expert decisions, they need to prevail in two critical capabilities: complexity of decision making AND the essentials of character. In my opinion said Gladwell, "it is the essentials of character that are in greater demand today!".

What do you think? What are the essentials of great leadership today? I would like to hear from you.